AUDUSD – 12.09.2014

Market Profile for AUDUSD

10.09.2014	11.09.2014	12.09.2014
0.9216 C         0.9211 CD        0.9206 ABCD      0.9201 ABCD      0.9196 AD        0.9191 DE        0.9186 DE        0.9181 E         0.9176 E         0.9171 EF        0.9166 EFG       0.9161 EFGHIWXY  0.9156 GHIRVWXYZ 0.9151 HIJMQRSTVWXYZ 0.9146 JMNQRSTVZ 0.9141 JLMNPQRSTZ 0.9136 JLMNPQR   0.9131 JLNP      0.9126 JKLP      0.9121 KL        0.9116 K         0.9111 K	0.9212 D     0.9207 D     0.9202 D     0.9197 D     0.9192 DEFG  0.9187 DEFGH 0.9182 DEFGH 0.9177 DEGH  0.9172 DEHI  0.9167 DIJ   0.9162 ACDIJK 0.9157 ABCDIJK 0.9152 BCDIJK 0.9147 IJK   0.9142 K     0.9137 KLM   0.9132 KLMPQ 0.9127 KLMPQ 0.9122 KLMNPQ 0.9117 MNPQ  0.9112 MNPQRSTV 0.9107 NPQRSTVWZ 0.9102 PQRSVWZ 0.9097 QRWXYZ 0.9092 RWXY  0.9087 XY	0.9104 A        0.9099 AB       0.9094 BC       0.9089 BCD      0.9084 CD       0.9079 CD       0.9074 DEFI     0.9069 DEFI     0.9064 DEFGHIJP 0.9059 DFGHIJKMNP 0.9054 GHIJKLMNPQRV 0.9049 GHKLMNPQRSTV 0.9044 KLPQRSTVWXY 0.9039 KLQRSTVWXY 0.9034 QRSXY    0.9029 QS
VAH= 0.9166 POC= 0.9156 VAL= 0.9131	VAH= 0.9162 POC= 0.9107 VAL= 0.9087	VAH= 0.9069 POC= 0.9054 VAL= 0.9039

 
Price of control is droping, while most activity is in the lowest part of the table indicating a seller pressure.

Tehnical Analysis

 Fibonaci retracement
1 Low 0.9208 (21.05.2014) + High 0.9501 (01.07.2014)
2 High 0.9400 (11.09.2014) + Low 0.9028 (12.09.2014)

Levels

0.9500
0.9300
0.9255
0.9200
9.9125
0.9025

Indicator analysis

Price is way below the 100 MA, and rinding the low band of BB20.

RSI is in the seller zone, i wonder for how much.

ADX(8) still is indicating a strong trend with a reading near level 50, although -DI is show a decrease in sellers pressure, while volumes show a decrease (but hey its friday).

Fundamentals

Iron ore prices are now more than 40 per cent below last year’s average price and still falling, greatly reducing the national income from Australia.
Most other commodities have performed a bit better than that but are still falling, including oil, gas, coal and the majority of metals we export.
Traders are betting on US rate hike.

Review

 I expect to see a lower aussie, even thou we may witness a rally first, be wary of the confluence levels  (marked with blue)